Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Nov 12, 4:51PM CST

Corn futures gained back 3 to 4 1/2 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. US corn harvest was reported in line with trader anticipations, with the USDA stating that the 18 states have progressed 14% since 11/03. Corn harvest is officially listed at 66% complete on 11/10, which is well behind the 85% average for this time of year. North Dakota was listed as 61% below their average pace, with So Dak reported 45% behind normal. WI and MI were also more than 30% behind their average pace. Also mentioned in the weekly report, sorghum harvest was ahead of average by 8 percentage points. Corn export inspections released by the USDA outpaced anticipations, with a near double (97.43% increase) over last week. The 560,105 MT for the week ending 11/07 was still remarkably below last year’s 1.158 MMT in weekly exports. MYTD the USDA has inspected 4.321 MMT of corn exports, 61.2% below last marketing year’s pace of 11.138 MMT. US FOB prices are above Argentine and Ukrainian prices, although recently below Brazil..

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.77 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.92 3/4, up 4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures found support today, and remained pretty steady throughout, to finish fractionally mixed on Tuesday. Soybean meal was $1.70/ton higher at the close, with bean oil 39 points lower. The USDA Crop Progress Report that was released this afternoon reported that national soybean harvest was right in line with trader expectations, listed at 85%. Harvest averages 92% completion for the time of year, however harvest is only 2 percentage points behind last year’s pace. National bean harvest was up 10% on the week with great weather, although with the recent snow in most of the WCB that efficient pace may slow by next week’s report. Soybean export inspections released this morning from the USDA, showed 48.929 mbu of soybeans for the week ending 11/07. That was just below the same week last year and 5.475 mbu less than last week. The MYTD accumulated export inspections for soybeans are 7.01% above 18/19’s pace

Trade ideas for US harvest progress are in the 84-85% range for the weekly report.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17, unch,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.30 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.42 3/4, unch,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $302.30, up $1.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.03, down $0.39

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures finished Tuesday’s session higher, with Kansas City HRW futures leading the way at 16 cent gains. Chicago SRW wheat also topped double digit gains finishing up 11 1/4 cents. MLPS HRS gained 6 1/2 cents after turnaround Tuesday. Traders had drastically underestimated weekly wheat export inspections, as the 528,875 MT were well above the expected range of 250-350,000 MT. Wheat export inspections are 44.42% higher than the week ending 10/31, and were 33.03% higher than the same week last year. The MY accumulated export inspections for wheat are up to 421.07 mbu, which is 79 mbu above last year’s pace. The Crop Progress report, delayed by the holiday, illustrated that winter wheat was right with the average pace with 92% planted, and 78% emerged. Canadian wheat harvest continues to drag on, with Alberta reporting 89.5% complete. They were 95% done a year ago at this time.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.17, up 11 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.38 3/4, up 16 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.21 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures finished mixed, with Dec and Feb down 10 to 12 cents and Apr gaining $0.22. Feeder cattle futures Rebounded after midday lows, having gained as much as 22 cents. The 11/08 CME Feeder Cattle index gained 68 cents to $146.52. Wholesale boxed beef prices finished the day with more gains. Choice boxes gained $1.91 to $240.50, in August prices topped $241 for a short time, but the last time choice boxes have been as high as $240 was 6/22/17. At Tuesday’s closing whistle select boxes had gained $2.54 for the day to finish at $216.23. Wednesday’s FCE auction will have 1393 head listed with 3/4 sourced from Nebraska. USDA estimated WTD cattle slaughter under federal inspection is 231,000 head, which matches the same week last year’s pace.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.750, down $0.125,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.575, down $0.100,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $127.175, up $0.225,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.800, up $0.225

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.125, unch,

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.825, up $0.125

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures rallied triple digits for turnaround Tuesday, gaining as much as $1.82. The 11/08 CME Lean Hog Index fell by $0.85, to $59.44. The pork carcass cutout value gained $2.19 on the day, and finished at $88.53; Ribs were down by $1.41 as the only primal cut to finish lower at the close. The national average base hog price was 10 cents higher to $42.69. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was 936,000 head; that is 48,000 head behind last Tuesday’s estimation. Since the National Day festivities, domestic pork prices in China have knowingly skyrocketed, as the shortage has spread to the government reserves of frozen imported pork. Chinese officials are reportedly planning new policies to maintain price levels, one of which is to import American poultry as a substitute to expensive pork, and the other is to mandate private storage firms to release their supplies; watch for the new policies to take effect before the Chinese Lunar New Year in January.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $64.725, up $1.425,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $75.550, up $1.825

APR 20 Hogs closed at $82.025, up $1.375

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures closed 13 to 35 points higher today, with gains dwindling through the nearby futures contracts. Cotton harvesters tried to get ahead of this week’s forecasted wet weather, as the USDA crop progress report indicated cotton harvest is about a week ahead of last year’s pace, and is 3 percentage points ahead of average with 62% of the 19/20 crop harvested. Online cash sales reported on The Seam from Veteran’s Day were 1,130 bales, last week’s total was 20,117 bales at a weekly average (average) price of 57.86 cents/bale. The Cotlook A Index for 11/11 was 55 points higher to 75.95 cents/lb. The AWP will remain at 56.63 cents/lb through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.64, up 35 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 66.4, up 32 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 67.59, up 23 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 68.62, up 13 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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