Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Nov 14, 7:30AM CST

Corn futures are mostly 1 cent per bushel higher this morning. Futures closed 2 1/2 cents to 3 cents lower after Wednesday’s round of trading. Preliminary open interest jumped 16,907 contracts on fresh hedging interest. CONAB corn exports for the 19/20 MY remained UNCH at 34 MMT, which was down from the 18/19 record of 39 MMT corn exports but more bearish than the trade had hoped. Brazil’s CONAB slightly lowered their 19/20 corn production forecast, down 30,000 MT to 98.37 MMT. The Nov WASDE projects 101 MMT of Brazilian corn. The weekly EIA report will be published shortly.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 2 to 2 1/2 cents lower after being 1 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents lower at Wednesdays close. Soybean meal is down 80 cents after being $1.80/ton yesterday, while soybean oil is down 4 since finishing Wednesday 50 points lower. Preliminary open interest rose 5715 contracts, with the new selling interest in beans focused on the March contract. Larry Kudlow, chief economic advisor, indicated that the tariff increases for December are still on schedule since no China deal has been reached yet. CONAB updated the projected Brazilian output this morning; they revised up the soybean production for 19/20 to 120.86 MMT, that is 2.14 MMT below the Nov WASDE number. CONAB’s Soybean exports were UNCH at 72 MMT. There were 214 delivery notices issued overnight against November futures, with an ABN AMRO client stopping 194 of them. Open interest was down to 241 contracts.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

So far this morning wheat futures are fractionally mixed. The overnight ranges were 4 to 5 cents wide, but to no net effect. Wheat finished Wednesday’s session with sharp losses that erased most of Tuesday’s advance. Kansas City wheat lead the way down by as much as 14 cents in nearby contracts. Nearby Chicago wheat closed with 7 3/4 cent losses to as low as 8 cents down. MLPS also lost in the front months, finishing 4 1/2 to 7 cents lower on the day. Jordan released an international tender for 120,000 MT of wheat. Egypt is also tendering for wheat for January 5-15 delivery. Results are expected later today.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures finished Wednesday lower by triple digits, down by $1.37 to $1.65 in the front months. Preliminary open interest rose 3,965 contracts, net new selling. Feeder cattle futures rebounded slightly after touching limit losses, but still finish the day with major declines. The CME Feeder Cattle index gained $0.20 on 11/12 to $147.44. Afternoon boxed beef prices were higher yesterday. Choice boxes were up $1.84 to $242.34. Select boxes were up $1.30 at $217.53. Wednesday’s FCE auction didn’t complete any sales; there were offers of $115 in Texas and $115.50 in KS, which were passed. There will be an additional online auction Friday. Some cash sales of $115 were reported for KS and TX on Wednesday afternoon. As of 11/13, the USDA estimated WTD cattle slaughter under federal inspection was 349,000 head, which is less than last week and the running total through the same Wednesday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were 27 cents lower for Apr contracts, but Dec and Feb lost triple digits on Wednesday. The 11/11 CME Lean Hog Index was 50 cents lower at $58.94, going the wrong direction for a December futures contract that is carrying a premium. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value was down $1.52, while picnic and belly primals made gains of $150 and $1.37 respectively. The national average base hog price was 49 cents lower to $42.24 on Wednesday afternoon. The USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter as of 11/13 was 1.428 million head; that is 48,000 head behind last week’s pace.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are 7 to 24 points higher this morning offsetting some of the 29 to 52 points lost on Wednesday. CONAB issued a 2.73 MMT forecast for the 19/20 Brazilian cotton crop, which is 10,000 above the October estimate. The Seam reported online cotton sales of 7,082 on 11/12. Cotton exports to China have been low enough over the last few years to persuade some analysts to adjust 2020/21 cotton planted acreage down; of course as harvest is still under way for this crop. Bear in mind there is a lot that can happen from now until then. The Nov 12th Cotlook A Index dropped 95 points, down to 75.00 cents/lb.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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