Grains Report 11/14/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Thu Nov 14, 2:10PM CST

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov. 15, 2019 214 Nov 13, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and the Chicago markets gave back all of the Tuesday rally. It was another day for record cold in much of the Great Plains and Midwest and some of the newly planted and emerged Winter Wheat could be damaged or worse. However, there have been no reports of losses so far. The areas most at risk are the areas where Wheat was planted first so it was the HRW market that moved the most. Temperatures will start to moderate now but any damage to be done is done. World prices remain stable and this has hurt the potential for the markets to rally much. There is still enough competition from Europe and Russia that US export demand is thought to stay weak.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures will moderate over he next few days. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal but near to above normal by late this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 509, 517, and 522 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 418, 416, and 414 December, with resistance at 432, 437, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 515, 514, and 510 December, and resistance is at 524, 529, and 532 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday. Trading volumes remain low and it looks like the Rice futures market is mirroring the cash market. USDA showed a slight decrease in ending stocks due to slightly reduced production last week and is expected to cut production again in January. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive although the weekly export sales report was not that strong last week. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1174, and 1158 January, with resistance at 1200, 1210, and 1213 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand but harvest progress ideas has been a little slower this week with the very cold weather seen in the Midwest. The cold and snow will make harvest more difficult. Farmers have been slow to harvest the Corn and have concentrated on Soybeans. Many producers say that the Corn is not drying down quickly and they are leaving it out in hopes that nature will help the progress along. Producers hope to avoid the use of artificial drying in order to save money. There is still a lot of Corn out in the fields but the temperatures are expected to moderate the rest of this week and that might allow for more rapid harvest if the producer wants. Some will elect to leave the Corn out in order to get as much natural drying as possible and some who got more snow will need to wait for soils to firm. Ideas are that feed demand is increasing with the current cold weather, but export and ethanol demand remain big questions. Export demand in particular has been poor as world prices are generally below those of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 365, 359, and 357 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 368 December, and resistance is at 378, 382, and 384 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 310, 320, and 334 December. Support is at 301, 297, and 295 December, and resistance is at 309, 314, and 317 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were slightly lower after trading both sides of unchanged on ideas of improving weather conditions in Brazil and uncertain demand. Brazil has been seeing better rains and there are forecasts now calling for improved rains in Argentina. USDA released its weekly crop progress reports and the producers are getting close to the end of the Soybeans harvest. Some artificial drying is being used but at least the crops are coming out. The market was affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. Word that a Phase One deal was progressing well and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal is still around but traders want to see something fixed at last. The latest word is that China does not want to commit to specific dollar or volume amounts in a trade agreement and both sides are negotiating these points.
Overnight News: China bought 129,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 913, 910 and 893 January. Support is at 912, 906, and 904 January, and resistance is at 922, 925, and 927 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 300.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3020 December. Support is at 3050, 3020, and 3000 December, with resistance at 3100, 3140, and 3150 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on a lack of trading interest and on price action in Chicago. Demand from crusher is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now.. Palm Oil was higher on news that Malaysia had signed trade deals with China (1.5 million tons) and South Asia (1.0 million tons). The market was expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data and they got it. Price action is very strong. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years on Friday.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 414,020 tons so far this month, up 12% from last month. SGS said that exports are 425,010 tons, from 375,117 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2670 and 2840 January. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2500 January, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 January.

DJ Malaysia’s October Palm Oil Exports 1.64M Tons; Up 16% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 16% on month at 1.64 million metric tons in October, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the October crop data and revised numbers for September, issued by MPOB:
October September Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,795,880 1,842,433 Dn 2.53%
Palm Oil Exports 1,641,743 1,410,023 Up 16.43%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 99,601 88,311 Up 12.78%
Closing Stocks 2,348,066 2,448,528 Dn 4.1%
Crude Palm Oil 1,323,696 1,353,343 Dn 2.19%
Processed Palm Oil 1,024,370 1,095,185 Dn 6.47%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week. Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +57 Dec +180 Dec +95 Dec +59 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +57 Dec +102 Dec +57 Jan
January +53 Mar +90 Mar +57 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 13
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Nov. 13 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, Nov. 13
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 433.30 -30.00 Nov 2019 up 2.10
Track Thunder Bay 472.10 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.20
Track Vancouver 480.10 18.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 637.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 642.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 650.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 650.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 645.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 630.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 515.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,560.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 170.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1550)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 147,846 lots, or 5.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,276 3,276 3,276 0 0 0
Jan-20 3,404 3,409 3,383 3,403 3,403 3,394 -9 129,054 157,582
Mar-20 3,439 3,441 3,439 3,441 3,456 3,440 -16 8 68
May-20 3,710 3,710 3,683 3,699 3,703 3,693 -10 17,936 87,358
Jul-20 3,763 3,763 3,733 3,747 3,752 3,751 -1 8 50
Sep-20 3,778 3,778 3,760 3,769 3,781 3,769 -12 840 10,602
Corn
Turnover: 909,434 lots, or 17.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 1,837 1,822 1,837 15 0 0
Jan-20 1,843 1,852 1,840 1,840 1,841 1,845 4 590,222 1,266,212
Mar-20 1,875 1,887 1,875 1,879 1,878 1,881 3 80,986 568,956
May-20 1,920 1,929 1,919 1,921 1,920 1,923 3 192,496 875,090
Jul-20 1,945 1,953 1,945 1,947 1,945 1,949 4 1,224 8,432
Sep-20 1,965 1,976 1,965 1,969 1,968 1,971 3 44,506 105,248
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,804,724 lots, or 51.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 2,867 2,882 2,865 2,869 2,871 2,872 1 136 4,014
Jan-20 2,885 2,898 2,868 2,877 2,884 2,882 -2 959,950 1,412,494
Mar-20 2,828 2,830 2,803 2,810 2,813 2,818 5 59,426 400,498
May-20 2,788 2,798 2,768 2,775 2,787 2,782 -5 651,178 2,375,166
Jul-20 2,811 2,815 2,797 2,797 2,810 2,805 -5 182 1,822
Aug-20 – – – 2,834 2,834 2,834 0 0 142
Sep-20 2,853 2,865 2,837 2,843 2,849 2,848 -1 133,852 874,992
Palm Oil
Turnover: 3,713,488 lots, or 20.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 – – – 5,468 5,468 5,468 0 0 0
Jan-20 5,444 5,454 5,344 5,438 5,498 5,400 -98 3,246,284 792,844
Feb-20 5,470 5,470 5,436 5,436 5,536 5,450 -86 24 708
Mar-20 5,666 5,668 5,560 5,602 5,580 5,620 40 138 16
Apr-20 – – – 5,666 5,626 5,666 40 0 2
May-20 5,618 5,642 5,550 5,632 5,670 5,596 -74 462,494 474,908
Jun-20 – – – 5,638 5,638 5,638 0 0 10
Jul-20 5,584 5,604 5,426 5,550 5,648 5,532 -116 76 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,206 5,314 5,206 -108 0 2
Sep-20 5,468 5,468 5,390 5,454 5,498 5,432 -66 4,472 36,774
Oct-20 – – – 5,434 5,498 5,434 -64 0 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,270,442 lots, or 80.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 – – – 6,296 6,296 6,296 0 0 10
Jan-20 6,364 6,372 6,298 6,348 6,422 6,326 -96 925,830 775,736
Mar-20 – – – 6,478 6,478 6,478 0 0 700
May-20 6,290 6,300 6,236 6,284 6,340 6,264 -76 326,162 549,632
Jul-20 – – – 6,268 6,344 6,268 -76 0 532
Aug-20 – – – 6,262 6,336 6,262 -74 0 2
Sep-20 6,216 6,218 6,164 6,204 6,250 6,192 -58 18,450 134,320
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.