August 6, 2013

Good Morning,
 
Yesterday afternoon the USDA raised the corn condition in the G/E category by 1% bringing it to 64%. They raised the ratings in IL, OH, NE, MO and KS while lowering it in IA and MN. Wisconsin came in at 60% G/E which is down 1%.
On Monday 8/12/13 the USDA will release its August S&D report which many that are looking for a bounce in the markets are hoping they will adjust planted acres lower. While this could happen, there is a good chance they will raise yield which most likely will negate any bullish support the acreage number would have supplied. Private estimates released over the last few days are expecting yields in the 158-161 bpa.
The Goldman Sachs roll is expected to start tomorrow which has been putting pressure on the old crop/new crop spreads.(They will be selling September contracts and buying December or March contract) Spreads are also getting pressured by several ethanol plants  announcing temporary shut downs from late August through September. Maintenance and tight corn supplies are the reasons for these decisions.
My advice to anyone holding old crop bushels is to SELL before prices fall even further as I expect will happen as we get closer and closer to new crop supplies. I would advise the same for new crop bushels to anyone less than 60% sold. There is a huge crop out there this year and I think $4.25 to $4.50 cash prices are going to look pretty good when we are done. Don’t let the story of unplanted acres keep you from locking in good prices.
 
Have a safe day!
 
Garry Gard
920-348-6844